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Future of Work

When Life Meets Digital: The Hybrid Future of Work, Retail and Events in 2021. Lessons from Web Summit

How to decide what to focus on in a time when everything is in flux? And how to prepare for the future when this year has been a year of exceptions?

When everything is in flux, then we want to focus on those shifts that will have a lasting impact. A good way to spot those lasting shifts is to listen in when those compare notes, who deal with change on a daily basis. Last week’s Websummit has been exactly the place to do this.

Among the many insights to be gained from the conference one pattern stood out:

our new world of 2021 will be hybrid.

Yes hybrid, meaning a combination of the physical and the virtual. Throughout 2020 a digital layer has increasingly complemented our physical activities. This has happened across our work environment, events and retail. This has shaped a new order of things, which likely to last beyond our Covid-driven lifestyles.

Where do we stand now?

But before jumping ahead into the post-pandemic world, let’s first determine where we stand. What did we learn and how have we evolved so far?

The Web Summit talks have highlighted how the first phase of the pandemic was about reacting and less about proactive acting. Leaders’ activities circled around initiatives to protect the physical health of employees and customers while maintaining the financial health of the business.

In the next phase, executives have switched from managing toward leading. From the initial survival mode they moved on to determine how they can adapt their business in the medium- and long-term. Those who succeeded have developed a clear vision of what their business should look like once they would come out of the pandemic.

But not only executive focus has evolved over the course of the pandemic. Also media coverage has shifted its focus. In the beginning, media tried to determine how our lives are changing. Since then we have managed to understand and adapt to our new temporary lifestyles. Now the role of technology in fighting the pandemic and in shaping the future of how we live has become the main topic of investigation.

This allows for the question of what comes after the pandemic.

What’s ahead for us?

Now, that we are nearing the distribution of vaccines, businesses need to determine what our post pandemic future will look like. The short answer is:

the future will be hybrid.

This means we most likely will have a hybrid workplace. Events possibly will be carried out in a live-digital combination. And the customer interaction in retail environments will be increasingly hybrid as well.

At this point you might question whether Covid really can have such a lasting effect on our workplaces, events and consumption? And rightfully so. But it’s not all the effect of the pandemic. Covid has just been a catalyst for what’s been in the making for quite a while already. Our lives already have become virtual – or shall we say hybrid – prior to Covid. But the offering of many businesses hadn’t exactly kept up with this shift.

Our digital lives

You will have noticed how our lives have become hybrid over the past years.

We virtually schedule our real-life restaurant appointments and meetings. When we leave our physical office, we use our mobile phone to catch a cab. When we play a virtual game, a digital tool enables us to have a real-life video conversation with friends. And the assessment of wine and weather has been outsourced from our senses to our apps.

Gaming activities might serve as a helpful indicator as to where things are trending. In a way, games have already become a virtual extension of people’s real lives.

In games, users play together with real friends, “creating memories together”, as Discord founder Jason Citron calls it. He has built a highly successful app, to do exactly that. Discord gives people their space to get the feeling that they spend time together with their friends, unmediated by algorithms. A real conversation that happens to be online.

When game users spend money to dress up their virtual avatars, they do this to send a message to their environment, which is equal to the message of real-world fashion. Their avatar signifies an identity or a belonging to a group. In Websummit’s discussion between fashion guru Virgil Abloh and game guru Jens Hilgers, both agreed that by now, “dressing up” in a game has become a natural, self-evident act.

Covid as catalyst

One major effect of Covid on businesses has been in that it has removed any inertia. By reshaping our lives and activities, Covid has diminished all legacy and perceptions of how we should tackle a specific problem. As a result, businesses have been willing – or rather forced – to try new things. In other words, Covid has lowered the cost of change.

In that way, Covid has been a major catalyst for change. The year of the pandemic has accelerated digitalisation beyond what could have been expected. Businesses have increased their capabilities at a rate that has been unseen in recent years. If you ever wanted to visit a tech conference where all speakers agreed on one thing, Websummit 2020 would have been your chance. 2020 has been an incredible accelerator of change.

Bret Taylor, now president and COO of Salesforce has been around change for a bit. As the co-creator of Google Maps, as a Benchmark Capital entrepreneur in residence, as former CTO of Facebook, one should think that normalcy surprises him more than change. Yet he experienced 2020 as facilitating a “beginner mind”. Here is what he had to say: “We have re-imagined how we do business”. “We depended on so many things, had so many perceptions. We thought work needs to take place in the office, we thought we need to meet a customer in order to be able to convince them.”

Also Basecamp’s co-founder & president, Jason Fried saw 2020 busting many myth’s, around the right ways to work. He expects businesses coming out of 2020 with more choices than before.

Burberry’s Global Vice President Marketing, Digital & Innovation, Mark Morris has experienced a “greater willingness to try.” According to him the “tried and trusted approach in how they create value” of many businesses had been rethought.

In particular, businesses have rethought the roles of offices, of meetings, of communication, of sales and of idea generation processes.

But it didn’t stop at rethinking. Also execution has kept pace.

Levi Strauss CEO, Chip Bergh, saw one effect of 2020 in building up business’ capabilities much faster, while following consumer needs closely.

In a discussion with Philips’ Chief Innovation & Strategy Officer, Jeroen Tas and Citi’s Chief Innovation Office, Vanessa Colella, they emphasised not only that many products got out quickly, with new solutions being found, but have seen more collaborations among competitors.

At times the debate of these transformations felt more like a self-help group than a tech conference. Which, after years in which many corporates provided more press releases than action, was a pretty good thing to see.

The future of events: entertainment

At first glance, events seem like a diverse space with a variety of offerings. On the one side, we have information events like courses. Then we have information and networking events like Websummit and other conferences. Finally, on the other side of the spectrum, we have entertainment events across music, fashion, sports, and brand(ed) experiences.

Do we need to shed a light on each category to see what’s going on? Not quite. Let’s define entertainment events as events that offer an experience to customers while connecting those customers with brands or creators. In this framing of the category we can see that music-, fashion-, branded events, and gaming have become a collective melting pot of various format bundles.

On the one side we see more and more collaborations between the different verticals. On the other side we are experiencing a constant repackaging, remixing and bundling of content elements for different distribution channels.

For example life recording components have been packaged for different distribution platforms like Twitch, TikTok and Instalive.

Music- and fashion culture have been repackaged for the virtual world through in-game events. Rapper Travis Scott’s performance on the game Fortnite for 27.7 million players has been widely reported on.

Burberry has streamed fashion shows on Twitch and on other platforms. Lamborghini has built their own augmented reality platform to present the car. Games enable the younger generation to experience racing the car across the circuit. Now naturally, not every teenager’s income may be suited to buy a real-life Lamborghini. So what’s the game for then? Despite empty pockets, teenagers have another asset at work. They share their experiences on social media channels, essentially becoming brand ambassadors.

Much of the hybrid events of our day and age serve the purpose of building brand awareness, and they do so in a more personal and conversational way than pure live events were able to do. They redefine the brand to customer interaction, whether the brand is a musician, a fashion label or a consumer goods business.

The alteration of brand to consumer interactions through experiences continues beyond what we traditionally would have called events.

The future of retail

Historically, brands have built retail flagship stores so that they can control how they are perceived by customers. But flagship stores have been challenged, not only through Covid, but also through increasing rents in expensive shopping locations, placing a heavy burden on brand’s cost structures. And as customers spend more time in other spaces compared to shopping streets, flagship stores’ power to connect with consumers may further decline.

As a result the customer-brand interaction is shifting toward the hybrid.

Levi’s operates a reduced number of flagship stores now. But those stores have been enhanced digitally through curbside pickups, reservation and appointment systems, where customers get informed digitally when it’s their turn.

With their Shenzhen Store, Burberry have built what they call the next level of social store. Through WeChat’s Mini Programmes they have connected the real store with a virtual experience. This hybrid customer journey starts when customers book appointments or items prior to their visit. It then continues as customers view digital content for displayed physical products, or when they explore hidden rooms. The journey finally ends digitally once customers share their experiences after the visit.

Both Chipotle and Starbucks have opened virtual restaurants in real locations. Chipotle has experimented by offering a drop off outlet without kitchen. This enables them to save on expensive urban rents while still reaching their urban customers. While doing so, they try to translate real life sensory experiences into the digital space by offering the “sounds, smells, and kitchen views of a traditional Chipotle.“

What is the lesson to be learned? We have to rethink what we call an event. Entertainment events have become a broader, more fluid, category. An event has become a space where entertainment content gets (re-)packaged and distributed. Here is my attempt at a definition: events have become a multi-layered combination of content-elements that are distributed across channels, to build a customer connection through an experience.

If we frame it this way, then we can look at each content component and see how it fits into each channel to serve the purpose of engaging the audience of that specific channel. For a flagship store, the channel used to be the shopping street. But maybe the content of the store is equally relevant for TikTok users, and vice versa. Key is to bring the customer relationship much closer to where the customer is, and what she or he actually need within their specific context.

What about conferences?

But let’s not forget about the second category of events. The informational and networking events like courses and conferences. What about them? The economics of those events and their more narrowly defined purpose allow for fewer experimentation than the prior discussed experience events. This means, they have tighter budgets, and customer expectations are equally tighter. As a result, event organisers still seem to be struggling to find the right model to adjust.

Most important, the key component of conferences, the networking is harder to replicate digitally. At Websummit there has been the opportunity to do some networking, but without any real life anchor it doesn’t feel as natural as having a chat at the standing tables of the caterer.

The other downside is that it can be quite tiring to listen to a screen for three days.

What had been intended as a good idea, the event chats, quickly have hijacked by the self-promotion army. We were fortunate to be provided with mobile applications, some stuff that could transform our lives with just one click, a supercharging of our experiences, disruptive solutions, the thousandth collaboration app, and finally help in finding ideal customers from someone who repurposes an events’ chat function for spray and pray marketing.

All of this is compensated by saved time and costs for travel, the opportunity consume more insights in a shorter time frame and at a lower investment of course.

Overall, Websummit has been a well implemented experience. Like in the real world, there were four rooms with different talks in parallel. That way, switching between talks was quicker than in the real world conference which had some advantages. Talks have been transformed into interviews, which made a lot of sense, added context and were easy to follow on screen.

Depending on time and travel budget, the attendance of real events virtually seems like a feasible option for the future.

The future of work

Finally, our work environment. This is possibly where Covid has had the biggest lasting impact on the way businesses and people operate. Many shifts in our ways of work and communication are here to stay.

Let’s be honest, the impact is not only huge because the pandemic has had the biggest effect on our work lives. The changes are also huge because work and collaboration processes have been a area of inertia for corporates.

It’s fair to say that this change is good news for most of us, unless of course we are in the business of renting out office real estate.

A number of statistics were quoted. We can sum them up by stating that neither employees nor employers are particularly keen to go back to the old status. No surprises here.

Speakers concurred that the future will provide us with a hybrid workplace. The key term to describe our future of work is ‘distributed asynchronous work’.

What distributed means should be pretty clear from our experience in 2020. But it gets more interesting when we look what asynchronous means in reality.

Asynchronous means we don’t have to work at the same time anymore. In more casual teams it means respect for people’s own time and respect for the the diversity of our lifestyles. If someone needs to take care of the children or run errands in the afternoon, and accordingly prefers to work evenings instead, that’s fine then. If doing a lot of meetings in front of a computer camera becomes stressful after a while, then people may want to adjust their schedule to their own pace. As Jason Fried stated, the work style will provide more choices.

Sounds all good, but how is is implemented? Collaboration processes will be shaped by a new scheduling of communication and meetings. The result can be for example fewer synchronised meetings – probably good news to many. Instead people can consume the content of – what was formerly known as meeting – on demand, whenever it best fits their work schedule. They read or view the content in their own time, take their time to finish their thoughts and respond. Again, as Jason Fried said, the result will be more choices of different work styles.

According to Box founder and CEO Aaron Levie, the communication will be digital first, enabling people to move much faster. This communication will most likely consist of a multitude of tools. Aaron Levie suggested email for long-form communication outside of the organisation, channel based for quick exchanges within the team and messages for one-on one communication.

Of course it’s not all easy peasy. Jason Fried emphasised that remote work is a different type of work”. This means we have to learn how to do it, like “you learn playing guitar”

Lessons for Leaders

With all these changes, there is a final lesson for business leaders. Many of the speakers have emphasised the importance of a repeated communication of the purpose and roadmap of the business. Whether communication happens through memos or videos, repeated and clear messages are crucial:

According to Aaron Levie “Overcommunication is incredible important now”.

Bill Thomas of KPMG has“spent a lot time on communicating what is their purpose.”

Caryn Seidman-Becker, CEO of Clear sees communication skills“at an all time high”.

At Slack there had“been more memos from leadership distributed”said Cal Henderson. He emphasised the need to: “strive for clarity. The important things to repeat over and over again. What they need to think about needs to be over communicated.”

In that sense I hope that this article has prepared you for a clear communication, and let’s keep adapting and learning.


Want to dive deeper?

Read:

HOW TO TURN CHANGE INTO A CALLING
WHY games might become the next social platform

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Clarintelligence is a platform that dissects the drivers of business, innovation & culture to help executives develop strategies and adjust their business to an ever changing world. It was founded by private equity professional turned publisher Martin Hoffmann.

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Get an MBA If You Want to Get Ahead in Business. Skip It If You Want Your Business to Get Ahead.

I had first written this article for Entrepreneur Magazine.

 

MBA programs do provide a useful toolkit, but they are better suited for established businesses than rapid-growth startups.

With a plentitude of resources at our fingertips, there has never been a better time to build a business. Sites like F6S, Appsumo and StartupStash list hundreds of low-cost resources available to businesses of all sizes. But, while available resources make it easy to set up the operations, the more challenging task is actually managing the business.

Traditionally, the go-to resource that has prepared tomorrow’s business leaders for the management of businesses has been the MBA. Yet, a recent report from the Financial Times shows that over the past two years MBA graduates have cooled on entrepreneurship, with less than one in five choosing the less stable startup experience. This begs the question: Does the MBA just attract a different breed of people or is it less suited for entrepreneurial endeavors?

While there are many benefits to pursuing an MBA program, this path also comes at a major cost; tuition as well as opportunity cost can weight heavy on an entrepreneur’s wallet. The good news is that today, there are options that provide equally as much value at less of a financial hit.

At the end of the day, being an entrepreneur means being able to assess opportunities and risks in uncertain situations. The same due diligence should be applied to assessing the benefits and costs associated with an MBA. Here are three essential items to include in the assessment:

 

The MBA is not built for growth companies.

MBA programs were originally designed to professionalize the management of the industrializing economy of the early 20th century. Since then, the programs expanded to incorporate the needs of Wall Street, business consultancies and other monolithic businesses. Yet despite MBA programs’ evolution, the pattern remains that the program was targeted for scalable, process-driven businesses. As a result, and as the name itself indicates, an MBA is a master in “administering” businesses.

These types of businesses for which MBA programs are built, however, require skill sets that are in sharp contrast to the needs of the entrepreneurial growth businesses of today.

At their core, MBA programs are built to provide predictability for corporate decision-makers. As such, they teach decision-making based on evidence and historical data. The real world of growth businesses, though, is messy and packed with wicked problems. Core business decisions are often questions of judgment, building on a deep understanding of the specifics of customers and the business environment. Since those two elements are changing rapidly for growth businesses, they cannot build on the luxury of predictability and reliance on historical data. Instead, they require a forward-looking perspective and intuition.

Another essential ingredient of MBA programs is the use of standardized tools and frameworks like the Five Forces model or SWOT analysis. While these are helpful to a certain extent, the problem is that they do not inspire original thinking. Standardized tools do not encourage the launch of original products and business models in crowded marketplaces. In contrast, it’s more often than not multidisciplinary thinking and a broad perspective, which lead to outstanding products and business models.

Journalist Philip Delves Broughton, recounts in his New York Times bestselling memories of his Harvard MBA experiences how this standardization approach can lead to narrow-mindedness. He recalls, “They liked to think of themselves as renegades and rule-breakers, and yet they struck me as a hardened monoculture. When one of them took up bicycling on the weekend, they all did. If one had pale blond wood in the conference room, they all did.“

Ultimately, MBA programs do provide a useful toolkit, but they are still designed for the stable businesses of the Industrial Age.

 

The principal value of MBAs can be earned in alternative, cheaper ways.

A huge chunk of an MBA’s value is implicit, extending well beyond the teachings. One of the most valuable aspects of an MBA is the resulting alumni network that students gain. In an interview with the Financial Times, one entrepreneur and Stanford MBA graduate notes, for example, that one of his biggest customers was a former classmate, with the revenues generated from that client alone being enough to cover the cost of his degree.

While there are apparently cases where the network pays off, the question remains: How much is a network really worth? Most graduates start their careers with a mountain of debt. Let’s assume you sell a product with a customer acquisition cost of $100. If we assume the tuition for the MBA to be $50,000 to $100,000 (not considering opportunity cost), then this amount of money could already acquire you the first 500 to 1,000 paying customers.

This does not even take into account that today, the opportunity to build a network outside of MBA schools has multiplied. Meetups as well as conferences enable you to build your real world network, while LinkedIn, AngelList and other business-focused social channels can help you build and maintain your network from your desk — all at a fraction of the cost of an MBA.

To some extent an MBA provides social proof when looking for VC funding, partnerships or jobs. But, so does work experience with companies like Google, promising growth companies or entrepreneur-in-residence programs, as well as social media influencer activity. When it comes to social proof, you may want to ask yourself why you need to invest in an MBA just because investors, employers or business partners aren’t able to judge your skills based on other measures.

 

The skill economy is expanding.

Opportunities to gain work experience and learn the relevant functional skills are expanding rapidly. General Assembly, Udemy and Udacity, among others, offer many courses and nanodegree programs, which can help you develop skills in a targeted way.

But, this is not to say that you should skip studies altogether and only take courses. Building a business requires a mix of these technical skills as well as intellectual skills, such as critical thinking, problem solving and lateral thinking. While technical skills take center stage early on in a business’s life cycle, it’s the critical and original thinking that will ultimately set the business apart. And with AI increasingly replacing many routine tasks, the thinking will remain as a true unique selling proposition. As Mark Cuban suggests, “Knowing how to critically think and assess them from a global perspective, I think, is going to be more valuable than what we see as exciting careers today which might be programming or CPA or those types of things.”

To develop this mindset, some form of traditional studies, at least at a BA level, is essential. This can then be coupled with learning the technical skills that one requires for today’s jobs. The exact skills that a business requires depend on the type of business as well as the type of business function that they are applied to. Looking at the hiring boards of some successful companies in that space, however, is a quick way to figure out which skills are needed in one particular industry.

Across industries, two big subject themes are of critical importance today. First, software is still eating the world, now more than ever. Computer science, data science and the like not only teach a valuable toolkit in this economy, but they also train critical thinking. The other primary skill is understanding humans. One of the biggest challenges for businesses today is reaching, engaging and converting customers. Accordingly, fields such as user experience design or psychology will be of critical importance to most consumer facing businesses going forward. These skills find application areas across product development and marketing.

 

Create an action plan.

While the MBA certainly offers value, it is not well-suited for those looking to the startups and growth companies of today. Rather, entrepreneurs now have the opportunity to develop their skills and networks by tapping into alternative resources that come at a lower cost.

For those who want to build their skills through alternative means, the first step is to look at the hiring boards of businesses in the industry you are active in and create an inventory of requirements. This can be followed by a personal development day. That day would be used to go through available resources such as courses and meetups in order to design a path to unleashing the skill set that best fits the requirements from step one. It’s best not to go this path alone, and industry-specific social media groups and forums are a good way to find like-minded companions.

Did you learn skills in alternative ways or did you spot relevant skills that are not included in the traditional curriculum? Share your experience as a comment, tweet or email with the hashtag #FounderSkills.

 

How to Locate the Next Growth Markets: Spotting the Soft Factors

This article first appeared in my column on the investor magazine Equities.com and has been updated since.

Historically, investors looking for potential growth opportunities have hyper-focused on American companies emerging from tech hubs such as Silicon Valley, New York, Boulder and Austin. However nowadays, with early stage valuations on the rise, increasing political instability and possible economic isolation caused by recent elections, it may be time to rethink the original framework for predicting future growth investment spaces.

President Trump’s ‘legacy’, if you want to call it this way, has increasingly isolated the US if not economically, then at least politically. The same goes for post-Brexit UK and also for the parts of continental Europe which are still being held back by increasingly tense social, political and economic climate.

The evolving political climate across the global economy poses multiple questions for investors, startups and strategy departments. Will this have an impact on businesses? How will it have an impact on the engines of our economies, the growth companies, and how it will effect the expansion of future growth markets? And what factors should we look out for when we assess the macro climate?

How Important are Policies?

In retail the mantra is location, location location.

For corporates and large scale global manufacturing companies, location has traditionally been equally important. Companies choose base countries based on factors such as bilateral trade agreements, political climate, tax regulations and access to suppliers. Recent tendencies of protectionist policies, as well as support for certain corporations and potential bilateral treaties might seem extremely influential factors for corporates, who are constantly looking for new market opportunities.

However, when we look at the growth markets of the future, then these factors are less important nowadays. Such policies are meant to support big conglomerates who know how to make themselves heard in the political space. But the time when European or US oligopolies would have a large headstart over their Asian counterparts has passed. During my time in private equity I have seen a fair share of producers of high quality products who seemed to be well protected until Asian competitors ramped up their skillset to produce the same quality at lower costs. And cost is not a criterion that these western companies are able to compete on.

If companies want to remain competitive, their competitive advantage needs to stem from innovation. The innovative businesses who create entirely new markets or products are the ones that drive not only competitiveness but also job growth, and so far big corporates haven’t been the ones who excelled at this.

Therefore, if we are searching for new growth markets, the typical demands of a location (bilateral agreements, materials, suppliers) become less important. Highly innovative, technologically advanced companies, especially SAAS enterprises, don’t rely on any of these factors.

Like good wine, Growth Companies need a special turf.

The ‘raw materials’ that keep the cogs turning in forward thinking tech companies are the talent which they bring on board, the bright minds which are constantly inventing, and improving. So while location is important, it is for totally different reasons. The key requirements for these growth companies are not based on trade agreements, or suppliers, but instead proximity to universities, space to grow and scale, and a liberal environment that attracts foreign and homegrown talent

Talent Needs Space and the Right Conditions to Grow:

For innovative growth companies different patterns play out that for corporates. The success factors for countries who compete for economic leadership have changed, too.

In his book Startup Communities, Brad Feld first highlights “Feeders” – these are the essential drivers of startup communities like universities, entrepreneurship programs, VCs, non-profits, government schemes, mentors and investors.

Next to these feeders, access to talent is critical for startups and growth companies. This ranges from skilled developers, designer and marketers, to experienced entrepreneurs and an infrastructure of mentors and investors. Richard Florida refers to this abundance of talent as the creative class, and argues that these educated, highly sought after people want to live in nice places and enjoy a liberal culture with a tolerance for new ideas. Most of all, they want to be around other creative-class individuals, which creates a strong network effect between creative communities.

Network effects mean “being in a place where startups are the cool thing to do and chance meetings with people who can help you.” as Paul Graham writes.

Northeastern University has mapped the intellectual migration network in North America and Europe over a 2,000-year span, illustrating how today’s cultural capitals have emerged.

Here is North America:

…and here is Europe:

An open society is crucial. By open, I mean not only tolerant but also a meritocracy where people have the freedom, the means and the education to innovate, try new things, and build ventures, without being held back by ‘old boys’ networks that hinder progress by hoarding opportunities and blocking outsiders from jumping in.

Since the beginning of the startup revolution, we have seen that a society based on old boy networks will not feed talent, but instead lead to inflexible corporations that fail to act at the right time and push change. And change is what these times are all about.

The current political climate with an increasing divide between conservatives and progressives is creating a toxic environment that is far from the perfect field to plant new startup ecosystems. This is why liberal democracies like France and Canada are seeing space to capitalize on their neighbours’ weaknesses and have relatively young leaders that represent a new generation who are ready and willing to shake things up.

While Emmanuel Macron has been courting US scientists after Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, Canada is successfully tempting U.S. companies and talent north, with Facebook (FB), Google (GOOGL), Uber and Microsoft (MSFT) recently having opened offices there.

The Emergence of the City State

However if you live in a country whose political climate has just made a U-turn, here is some good news. While political leaders, their governments and their policies play a big role in defining how attractive a country is to the creative class, this doesn’t mean that particular cities or ‘hubs’ cannot flourish by themselves.

Led by California, dozens of states and cities across the US have already stated their intentions to ignore Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement. Silicon Valley will continue to boom regardless of Trump’s meddling, and Sadiq Khan remains as influential in the future of London as Teresa May. The impact of the cities on a growth space may actually be higher than the impact of the country, as cities, states and hubs end up micromanaging themselves.

If you live in one of the global cultural centers you will notice how people tend to move almost more between New York, London or Berlin than within their own country. This provides an interesting exchange of talent and knowledge between these hubs. If Silicon Valley’s unicorns have found more innovative or more productive ways to organize their work, then other hubs are likely to follow suit, not only because of the internet but because of talent, which acts as a multiplier.

In calling Berlin home, a city that not only has built and has torn down walls, I am fortunate to find myself in an environment that’s a breeding ground for growth industries. While Berlin has long suffered from extraordinarily high unemployment rates, thanks to liberal immigration policies, a welcoming culture and low cost of living, it has attracted talent from all over the world, which produces an astonishing output of new businesses and jobs.

How to Predict Growth Markets in the New Landscape?

Therefore, for growth companies, political macro factors of a nation are of lesser importance than the type of infrastructure, culture and society that a city or hub offers. Investors equally will shift their focus from macroeconomic factors to the factors that attract talent, and from nations to cities.

But how do you assess such an environment?

1. Follow the talent:
See where migration is happening as illustrated in this map of migration from 2005-2010. These are fast changing times, and to keep up to speed, ecosystems need a steady flow of the best talent out there.

2. Scout for education and an evolving culture:
Assess which educational institutions matter and their admission policies. Do they offer open access or act as a breeding ground for the new generations of old boys clubs? Is society within an area segmented or is it open? Look at income distribution within a society and how it changes over time. Is it monopolized or does it reflect true opportunities for everyone? Resources like Nomadlist provide you with useful insights about local cultures.

3. Spot innovation hubs:
The European Commission and KMPG offer lists of key innovation hubs. Compare several of them and watch how they develop. The magic sauce is in the criteria they apply. While some focus on the quality of local universities, others focus on R&D activities by startups. Some focus on the number of well known unicorns, and others focus on the whole infrastructure. Your focus will depend on the stage you are interested in. While places like Berlin or Lisbon provide attractive early stage opportunities, the more developed US cities will provide a richer supply of larger, fast-growth companies.

Culture drives growth. But unlike economic policies and GDP figures, culture is not always easy to understand and assess. Yet this is why looking through the smoke and finding open climates, where innovative companies can find the space to grow can put you will ahead of the rest of the herd.

 

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